CCTV Financial News Live: President Chen Bolin of Digital Cement Network analyzes the cement market
A few days ago, the CCTV financial channel “Transaction Time” column was specifically targeted at the cement industry, and invited the deputy director of the China Cement Association Information Center and president of the digital cement network, Chen Bolin, to analyze and forecast the recent market performance of the cement industry.
Moderator: In the past 2017, cement prices have continued to rise, rising from 335 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2017 to 415 yuan per ton in December, or an increase of 25%. The performance of cement stocks is quite dazzling. The Shenwan Cement Manufacturing Index rose by 24.91% in 2017. Although the recent rebound in the cement sector occurred in the recent days, the industry remains optimistic about its future trend. Today we are paying attention to the cement industry. Recently, various cement listed companies including Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Evergreen have announced the 2017 annual pre-additions announcement, and Anhui Conch Cement announced that the profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017 will increase compared with the same period of last year. 5.97 billion yuan -7.68 billion yuan, an increase of 70-90%; Evergreen is expected that the 2017 net profit of 412 million -504 million yuan, an increase of 80% -120%; Huaxin Cement projected 2017 net profit will increase by 1.36 billion yuan year-on-year -1.58 billion yuan, an increase of 300% -350%. After experiencing rapid growth in 2017, cement prices have fallen in some regions since January 10, 2018. On January 12, cement prices in Shanghai, Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu have generally been reduced by RMB 50-60 per ton. . The industry believes that both the point and the rate of price adjustment are in line with market forecasts. The industry cycle begins with supply. Although the industry is off-season in the next quarter, it will have a steady rise from the full-year demand. Therefore, for 2018, The industry fundamentals remain optimistic.
Deputy Director of the China Cement Association Information Center and CEO of Digital Cement Network, Chen Bolin: From the perspective of the overall price performance in January 2018, the high-priced area represented by the Yangtze River Delta presented a rapid decline, but we do not think this is a worry because it is fast. The fall reflects a reasonable return of cement prices in high areas. From the entire first quarter, we believe that the year-on-year price level will still be higher than the same period in 2017. Throughout the year, we think cement prices will still be higher than the average price in 2017, which will also make the industry's profitability level. It is expected to increase by 10%-20% on the basis of 2017. At present, industry associations and large enterprises are actively accelerating the withdrawal of excess production capacity through the establishment of capacity elimination funds. At the same time, the government has formulated relevant emission standards, accelerated the withdrawal of backward production capacity through comprehensive standards and complied with laws and regulations, and has further promoted the overall shift. Production policies should also accelerate the promotion of corporate concentration.