Economist Li Daokui: The government should introduce policies to accelerate the elimination of surplus production capacity in th
Recently, the Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first half of 2015. CCTV's "Economic Information Networking" invited Mr. Li Daokui, a professor at the School of Economics of Tsinghua University, to interpret GDP and industry data in the first half of the year. The following is the finishing of the cement part.
Moderator: In the June data, such industries as high energy consumption and high pollution are declining. This is also a traditional industry, and the pressure is huge. For example, the transformation of the industry, energy reform, and overcapacity, etc. We want to discuss where the future of these industries is going?
Li Daokui: In fact, this contains very interesting economic principles. The average scholar thinks that the government should not interfere in the adjustment of these industries. But what is the characteristics of China? China is still a catch-up country. The growth laws of our industries can be compared with those of historical and developed countries. It should be relatively clear. In these high-energy-consuming industries, the products they produce do not mean that the Chinese economy does not need it. The steel they produce and the cement they produce may have excess capacity in the short term, but in the long run it still needs to be done. What should we do? It should take advantage of the current economic adjustment opportunities, the government introduced policies, and more effectively speed up the elimination of some high energy-consuming and high-polluting industries and eliminate them later. Because the supply has declined, the prices of some steel and cement will naturally rise. In addition, the government should provide certain subsidies for these enterprises along the coast, with wharfs, and with two out-of-towns (which can go overseas). I have done a calculation. If we spend 5 years greening 50% of our steel production capacity, we can pull GDP growth rate by 1.25% each year. This is a very big figure, and we must consider the “One Belt, One Road” and “One Belt, One Road”. "A lot of countries have no steel plants or serious shortage of steel production capacity, so we should put the "One Belt and One Road" demand into our consideration of the current green capacity investment, and use this opportunity to accelerate the adjustment.